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The democratic revolution (?) In Egypt

di Andrea Gilli da epistemes.org

A pochi giorni dalla fuga di Mubarak da Il Cairo, vale la pena analizzare alcune stranezze di questa first democratic revolution in the Arab sauce.

After days of demonstrations, strikes, violence in the streets, Mubarak has given. Something, however, no returns. First, we face the first democratic revolution that brought to power the military . This is the first oddity. The military has now said it wants to facilitate the transition. Meanwhile, however, Chambers have been dissolved and the constitution suspended .

It 'possible that the measures are temporary. Political science we know that the only way to the absolutism is the competition between branches. At this time, all power is in the hands of the army . It is not clear, therefore, why this should or could leave it in a more or less distant future.

One could argue that the riots could return to the square. Here comes the second problem. The army has played a side with the protests to topple Mubarak . The army, holding the military, has clearly played the role of dominus. Its orientation depended on the future of the regime. And tomorrow? In the future, if the army did not move ahead with the promised reforms, there will be Mubarak: We will only the protests and the army itself. It is hard to imagine that at that moment this would side with the protesters .

Here we come to the last point: it is necessary that everything changes so that everything remains. I think so. My speculation is, however, I find it hard not to see the following as a possible background. The United States is concerned about the demonstrations. The fear was of a rise to power of the Muslim Brotherhood. Their "man" in Egypt and the army. Have interacted to topple Mubarak so that the demonstrators could see their demands fulfilled and at the same time, political power was preserved. In essence, this is the first democratic revolution that instead of weakening American influence seems to strengthen . Perhaps it is worth asking not only how far is democratic, but also how the revolution.